Closing line value

Write down a decimal price before the match, and keep the timestamp. When the market closes, convert both prices to implied probability. CLV is the closing implied probability minus the logged implied probability, in percentage points. This preview is not logging reads yet.

• A shorter close (a smaller decimal) raises the implied probability.
• If you logged the side that got shorter, CLV is positive.
• If the close drifted away from the logged side, CLV is negative.
• The series can still be lost when CLV is positive. The log and the result are different questions.

Worked example: a side logged at 1.80 (about 55.6% raw) that closes at 1.70 (about 58.8% raw) has about +3.2 percentage points of CLV. The series can still be lost. A positive average on a short log is not a skill claim. Pending reads stay out of the hit rate.

We do not accept wagers. CLV here is a definition. The track record is a shadow test with no rows yet.